000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270936
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
936 UTC Tue Mar 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends southwest from near the Pacific border
of Costa Rica and Panama at 08.5N83W to 07N88W. The ITCZ axis 
continues from 07N88W to 04N110W to 04N125W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ
between 106W and 115W, and also between 119W and 128W. Similar
convection is within 120 nm northwest of a line from 11N109W to
05N120W, and also from 07N to 10N west of 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 20N116W to 
14N92W for the next several days. A tight pressure gradient is 
currently supporting fresh to locally strong flow across the 
entire area west of the Baja Peninsula, with seas to 11 ft from 
29N to 32N. The pressure gradient will relax today, with locally 
strong north winds only forecast near the southern tip of the 
Baja Peninsula from late tonight into early Wed morning. Seas 
will subside to less than 8 ft throughout the area on Wed. Gentle
to moderate northwest flow and 2 to 4 ft seas are then expected 
during the rest of the week. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate northerly winds
will briefly increase to fresh to locally strong out of the
northwest as a weakening frontal trough passes through the far 
northern gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds 
are expected throughout the gulf waters tonight through Sat 
night, expect brief strong pulses possible near the southern tip 
of Baja.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
through early Fri. Then, high pressure building north of the 
region will induce a gap wind event beginning Fri afternoon, 
with strong to near gale force winds possible starting late Fri 
night.

The remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, should expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 
6 ft seas to prevail the next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal 
winds expected this week and into the weekend, with seas 
building to as high as 9 ft downstream near 10.5N88W.

Gulf of Panama: Brief strong northerly winds are expected 
through early morning and again tonight. Fresh nocturnal north 
winds are then expected to resume on Wed night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail 
generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast 
S of 07N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A low pressure system northeast of the Hawaiian islands will 
drift northward as high pressure centered north of the area 
strengthens. The tightening pressure gradient will support an 
increasing area of strong NE-E-SE winds, with 8 to 13 ft seas, 
across the EPAC waters N of the ITCZ and west of 120W through
tonight. Conditions will gradually improve during the middle of 
the week, with winds 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft, 
across the entire area by Thu night, with little change then 
forecast through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky