000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N81W to 06N88W where scatterometer winds indicated that an ITCZ develops and continues southwest to 03N113W, then turns west-northwest to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 03N92W to 06N105W to 02N113W, within 60 nm either side of a line from 09N103W to 10N109W, and within 270 nm either side of a line from 04N120W to 11N131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 20N116W to 14N92W for the next several days. A tight pressure gradient is supporting fresh to locally strong flow forecast across the entire area west of the Baja Peninsula on Mon, with seas to 12 ft between 30N and 32N. The pressure gradient will relax on Tue, with strong north winds only forecast near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula late Tue night into early Wed morning. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft throughout the area on Wed. Gentle to moderate northwest flow, and 2 to 4 ft seas, then expected during the rest of the week. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate northerly winds are expected through this evening. A weakening frontal trough will pass through the far northern gulf waters later tonight followed by briefly fresh to locally strong NW flow on Tue. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds expected throughout the gulf waters on Tue night through Thu night, expect brief strong pulses are possible near the southern tip of Baja. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early Fri. Then, high pressure building north of the region will induce a gap wind event beginning late Fri, with strong to near gale force winds possible during the upcoming weekend. The remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to prevail the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal winds expected this week, with seas building to 9 ft downstream near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Brief strong northerly winds are expected tonight and again on Tue night. Fresh nocturnal north winds are then expected to resume on Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A low pressure system developing north of the Hawaiian islands will drift northward as high pressure centered north of the area strengthens. The tightening pressure gradient will support an increasing area of strong NE-E-SE winds, with 9 to 12 ft seas, across the EPAC waters N of the ITCZ and west of 120W beginning tonight, and continuing through Tue night. Conditions will begin to improve during the middle of the week, with winds 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft, across the entire area by Thu night, with little change then forecast through the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson