000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2115 UTC Sat Mar 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

Monsoon trough from 09N83W to 06N90W. ITCZ from 06N90W to 
02N104W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 
90 nm of ITCZ east of 99W and between 110W and 120W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis that extends from 30N130W to 20N111W and will 
meander over the area for the next several days. A batch of 
northwest swell of 7 to 9 ft is spreading SE offshore of northern
Baja, and is expected to spread SE across all the waters west of
the Baja Peninsula by Sun evening. The pressure gradient will 
further tighten through the weekend, with fresh to locally 
strong flow forecast across the entire area N of 21N, W of Baja 
on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft building along 30N by late 
Mon.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected 
through the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow
forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon. A dissipating cold
front will transition to a trough before passing through the far
northern gulf on Mon night followed by strong NW flow on Tue, as
low pressure crosses the SW United States. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is 
weakening and retreating eastward, which will allow for strong 
winds currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to diminish under 20
kt by this afternoon. Seas will remain less than 8 ft through the
period. Light winds will prevail thereafter over this region 
through the middle of the upcoming week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on 
Thu, but ash is currently not visible over the Pacific waters. 
Hazy conditions and reduced visibilities are possible during any 
future eruptions, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along 
the Pacific coast of Guatemala. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong  NE nocturnal winds are 
expected this morning, then decreasing during the daylight hours.
Strong drainage winds will then pulse each night through the 
middle of the upcoming week. Seas will reach 8 to 9 ft each night
under these conditions. 

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected 
to develop each night the next several nights.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow will prevail N of 07N while 
light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N with seas of 4 to
6 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure north of the region will produce a narrow swath of
strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W 
through the weekend with seas of 9 to 11 ft, while northwest 
swell to 9 ft propagates SE elsewhere across the waters north of
08N west of 110W through early next week. 

An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of 
the Hawaiian islands tonight, then drift northward through Tue. 
In the meantime, high pressure centered near 35N145W this weekend
will drift east and intensify early next week. This pattern will
support strong trades and large swell across the waters N of 
roughly 10N and west of 120W beginning on Mon night. 

$$

ERA