000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232049
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 23 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough is analyzed from 08N82W to 05N101W where 
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops, and continues W 
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 150 nm of 05.5N85W and within 30 nm of lines 
from 10.5N116.5W to 09.6N123W and from 04N121.5W to 05.5N130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to 
14N97W for the next several days. A batch of northwest swell has 
arrived at 30N120W in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, and is 
expected to spread southeast across the all the waters west of 
the Baja Peninsula by Sun evening, with a strong northwest 
breeze setting up along the Pacific coast of Baja on Sat 
evening. The pressure gradient will further tighten throughout 
Sun, with fresh to locally strong flow forecast across the 
entire area on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft building along 
30N late Mon.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds expected through 
the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow 
forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon. A cold front 
will pass through the far northern gulf on Mon night followed by 
strong NW flow on Tue.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Post gale conditions will 
continue to diminish to 20 kt or less, with seas subsiding to 
less than 8 ft, on Sat afternoon.   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on 
Thu, but an ash is currently not visible. Hazy conditions and 
reduced visibilities are possible during these future eruptions, 
and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along the Pacific coast 
of Guatemala. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE nocturnal winds 
expected tonight, with strong drainage winds resuming on Sat 
night.

Gulf of Panama: Strong northerly winds are expected tonight and 
again on Sun night. Otherwise, fresh nocturnal winds are 
expected to resume on Sat night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
07N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strengthening high pressure will produce a narrow swath of 
strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W, while 
northwest swell propagates southeast across the waters north of 
08N west of 110W through early next week.   

An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of 
the Hawaiian Islands on Sat nigh, then drift northward through 
Tue. Strong trades and large swell will develop across the 
waters west of 120W beginning on Mon night. 

$$
Nelson