000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210330
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into 
southern Mexico behind a cold front in the western Gulf of 
Mexico will induce strong to near-gale north winds surging into 
the gulf early Wed morning, then increase to minimal gale force 
Wed evening. Gale conditions are then expected to continue 
through Fri morning, with seas building to a max of 13-14 ft. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 04N93W. The ITCZ axis 
continues from 04N93W to 04N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm S and 90 nm N of 
the ITCZ axis between 120W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see see Special Features Section above for details on 
gale force winds expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak high pressure is centered W of the Baja peninsula near 27N 
121W. The high will support gentle to moderate northerly winds 
in the Baja offshore waters through Wed. Moderate northerly 
winds will develop Friday morning as a strong ridge builds NW of 
the forecast area.
  
Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds are across the 
southern half of the gulf based on recent scatterometer data. 
These winds are forecast to continue through Wednesday along 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds will develop 
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo early Wednesday morning, with 
seas building to 7 ft. Stronger winds are expected early 
Thu morning through Sun with max seas building to 10-11 ft. 

Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected downstream of 
the Gulf of Panama early Thu morning through Sat night. Light to 
gentle offshore flow will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weakening stationary front from 30N128W to 20N140W supports 
fresh southerly flow N of 28N ahead of the front with seas to 9 
ft. A 995 mb surface low pres system N of the area near 34N136W 
extends a cold front from 30N132W to 24N140W. Strong W winds are 
N of 29N west of the cold front to 137W. Large seas to 16-18 ft 
and long period NW swell are in the NW part of forecast waters. 
The low will lift northward away from the area overnight, and 
winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Wed afternoon. Large NW 
swell will propagate southeastward through Sat.

A progressive pattern will continue to impact the northeast 
portion of the area through Thu night. A deep layer low pres 
system located NW of the area is preceded by deep mid to upper 
level moisture that will support precipitation across southern 
California and the northern and central Baja California during 
this period.

$$
Mundell