000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Mar 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N97W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) begins and extends to 08N110W to 08N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N of the axis between 94W and 96W, and also within 60 nm of the axis between 130W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong jet stream branch rounds the base of a broad deep layer trough that is advancing eastward across the eastern portion of the area. This jet stream is advecting abundant deep moisture east-northeastward towards much of Baja California. Patches of rain with embedded scattered scattered showers are being transported east-northeastward to across Baja California. At the surface, a cold front extends from a 1014 mb low over southern California southwestward through 32N119W to 28N124W and to near 26N131W. This front will weaken is at moves across the remainder of the northeast portion of the area and northern Baja California by this evening. The interaction between thermal Low pres over the far northern part of the Gulf of California and high pres ridging just to the west of the Baja California peninsula will result in strong southwest to west winds over the waters N of 29N through early this afternoon, then diminish to mainly moderate winds soon afterwards. The high pres ridging will slide eastward through Mon in response to a strong cold front that moves across the northwestern part of the area. Pulses of strong winds are expected to the southwest off Los Cabos early Sun, and off Cabo Corrientes by early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds through this morning and again tonight and Sun night before diminishing to fresh winds. Over the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds, with seas of 5 to 7 ft will diminish to fresh winds this afternoon. Seas will subside to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft to persist into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Residual NW swell to 8 ft will persist south of 10N west of about 136W through this evening, then decay below 8 ft. The gradient associated with weak high pres over the area will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the deep tropics along with seas of 5 to 7 ft through Mon. Farther S over the deep tropics, a broad upper trough in combination with trade wind convergence is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 30 nm of line from 11N111W to 10.5N115W. A stronger cold front will approach the far NW corner of the area tonight. By early on Sun morning, low pres will ride northeastward along the front to just N of the area near 31N139W, with the cold front extending from it southwestward to just west of the area. This cold front will be preceded by strong to near gale force southerly winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft as it reaches to near 32N136W to 27N137W, to beyond 26N140W by Sun night and from near 32N133W to 26N135W to 24N140W by late Mon afternoon. A secondary cold front will approach the far NW corner of the area Mon night also preceded by strong southwest to west winds, and most importantly a large batch of NW swell will propagate into the NW part of the area ahead of the front on Mon, with seas in the range of 8 to 14 ft. The highest of these seas is expected in the far NW corner of the area on Mon. $$ Aguirre