000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1524 UTC Wed Mar 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Reinforcing high pressure will build through this evening, perpetuating the gale force winds and associated seas to 12 ft. The plume of strong winds and high seas will reach downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 13N97W through Thu. The gradient will start to weaken tonight as the supporting high pressure shifts eastward, although local drainage effects will continue to support minimal gales into early Thu morning. Winds and seas will diminish substantially thereafter. Please see the latest Pacific Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 08N82W to 05N94W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N94W to 06N110W to 03N137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 120W and 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Moderate northwesterly winds are across the region with 5 to 7 ft seas off the coast of Baja California and 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California. A front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California today before dissipating late today over the Sonoran Desert. Strong westerly gap winds are possible over northern Baja California into the Gulf of California tonight, then diminish as the front moves farther southward and weakens. Long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move into the waters off Baja California following the front. The swell will propagate to the waters of Baja California Sur by late Thu before decaying below 8 ft. Winds and seas will continue to diminish into Fri as high pressure builds over the region. Beyond 48 hours, southwest winds will increase and another round of NW swell ahead of another cold front moving west across the region. Strong westerly gap winds are again possible into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat as the front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds through Fri night as the pressure gradient re-strengthens in response to high pressure building southeastward over the Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico. Over the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds may briefly be strong off the Azuero peninsula late Thu. Seas are expected to be in the range of 4 to 6 ft as moderate cross- equatorial SW swell propagates through these waters, building the seas 5 to 7 ft Thu and Fri as the winds also increase. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to prevail, except seas of 8 to 12 ft in northerly swells generated from the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will propagate into the Guatemala offshore waters. Jet dynamics aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 04N to 07N between 83W and 90W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extending from near 32N118W TO 22N130W will shift eastward across the waters north of 20N through today. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers are noted within 120 nm to the east of the front from 24W to 31N. NW swell is propagating into the region behind the front, with seas in excess of 8 ft and reaching 10-12 ft N of 28N and between 125W and 130W. NW to N swell producing seas in the range of 8-10 ft will slowly subside to the west of about 118W through Thu. $$ Formosa