000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Building high pressure in the wake of a cold front moving across the Bay of Campeche this afternoon will induce a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale force this evening, with seas building to 11-12 ft. Then, winds will further increase to 30-40 kt by early Thu morning, with seas of 12-14 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force on Fri. Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N81W to 03N102W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N102W to 05N120W to beyond 06N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the ITCZ axis between 130W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell is propagating southward west of the Baja California peninsula and decaying to 4-6 ft in offshore waters. Weak high pressure of 1018 mb located near 28N121W will produce gentle to moderate moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California today. Winds will freshen tonight and Thu as the high strengthens slightly during the latter part of the week. Gulf of California: NW winds will slowly diminish today across the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected during the next 24-36 hours, diminishing further Thu night and Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W in Guatemala continues to intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash, with recent satellite imagery suggesting the associated ash cloud drifting NW over land. Moderate NE winds in the SW Caribbean passing through Central America are producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, fresh to strong winds will continue through Thu and are expected to pulse to 30 kt tonight through early Fri morning, with seas building to 10 ft. The rest of the forecast period, 25 kt winds are likely during late night and early morning hours, with seas peaking around 8 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Thu night. Seas are expected to be 6 to 9 ft as northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross-equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from strong low pressure area N of the area near situated 37N134W to 30N131W to 19N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted ahead of the front N of 28n to 127W to seas of 9 ft. Long period NW swell follows the front building seas to 8 to 12 ft in NW waters. The front will move E and weaken over the next 24 hours, then dissipate to a frontal trough extending from 30N125W to 25N127W by early Fri. This swell event is mixing with easterly wind waves to produce 8-11 ft seas W of a line from 30N127W to 20N130W to 10N140W. This swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and significantly reduce the area of 8 ft or higher seas during this zone. $$ GR