000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071446
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 05N84W to 04N94W. The ITCZ axis 
extends from 04N94W to 09N119W to 09N131W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 
11N between 132W and 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell is propagating southward west of the Baja California 
peninsula and decaying to 4-6 ft in offshore waters. Weak high 
pressure near 29N123W will induce moderate NNW winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California today. Winds will freshen 
tonight and Thu as the high strengthens slightly during the 
latter part of the week.

Gulf of California: NW winds will slowly diminish today across 
the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNW winds are expected during the 
next 24-36 hours, diminishing further Thu night and Fri.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front moving across the NW Gulf of 
Mexico this morning will move SE and induce strong northerly 
winds across Tehuantepec by midday. Winds are then expected to 
increase to gale force tonight and continue until around midday 
on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W in Guatemala continues to 
intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash, with recent 
satellite imagery suggesting the associated ash cloud drifting 
NW over land. 

Moderate NE winds in the SW Caribbean passing through Central 
America are producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, 
fresh to strong winds will continue through Thu and are expected 
to briefly pulse to 30 kt tonight, with seas building to 10 ft. 
The rest of the week, 25 kt winds are likely during late night 
and early morning hours, with seas peaking around 8 ft. In the 
Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong 
during the overnight and early morning hours tonight. Seas are 
expected to be 6 to 9 ft as northerly wind waves mix with 
moderate cross-equatorial SW swell. 

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front extending from strong low pressure area N of the 
area near 34N136W is producing gale force winds N of 30N and 20 
to 30 kt W to SW winds N of 29N between 134W and 137W. NW swell 
generated by the low is producing an area of 8 to 12 ft seas in 
NW waters. The front will move E and weaken over the next 24 
hours, then dissipate from 30N129W to 21N133W by early Thu.

An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing in the waters W of 
120W with easterly wind waves to produce 8-11 ft seas W of a 
line from 30N127W to 13N140W. This swell will gradually fade 
over the next 24 to 48 hours, and significantly reduce the area 
of 8 ft or higher seas during this zone.

A cold front associated with the deep layer low pressure system 
near 34N136W continues to move slowly E across the NW waters and 
extends from 30N131W to 21N140W. This deep low pressure system 
also extends troughing SW in the deep tropics S of the Hawaiian 
Islands. The system is inducing an area of significant low level 
moisture convergence across the far W waters of the discussion 
area. An extensive area of deep convection prevails within 300 
nm SE of the front. This area is expected to remain convectively 
active the rest of today.

$$
GR