000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2210 UTC Tue Mar 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 03.5N102W to beyond 08.5N140W. scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm S and 150 nm N of ITCZ between 122W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The NW swell from a recent cold front continues to propagate southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as it decays. Seas of 8 ft and greater have shifted S of 15N across the far offshore waters associated with this swell. leaving seas generally 4-6 ft offshore or Baja California. Weak high pressure over the NE Pacific has shifted SSE and reorganized near 31N121W and will settle along about 29N-30N tonight to produce moderate N to NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, continuing through Wed. The high pressure will strengthen Wed night and Thu and act to freshen winds across the waters during the latter part of the week. Gulf of California: Fresh NNW winds through the entire length of the Gulf this morning continue to diminish very slowly this afternoon, with strongest winds currently prevailing near the coasts mainly due to daytime heating. Winds will diminish further tonight, especially across N portions, as a high center reorganizes across the offshore waters along 29N-30N. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds are expected to the next few days, and diminishing further Thu through Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient across the Tehuantpec region is allowing local wind flow to be dominated with land-sea interaction, with light onshore flow expected today and a moderate land breeze at night. A cold front moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will move SE and induce strong northerly winds across Tehuantepec by around midday on Wed. Winds are expected to increase to gale force on Wed night and continue through around midday on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala continues to intermittently vent light amounts of ash, with recent satellite imagery suggesting the associated ash cloud drifting SW over land and moving towards the coast. Local interests are urged to closely follow volcanic activity in this area. Moderate NE winds across the SW Caribbean are passing across Central America and producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, fresh to strong winds will continue through Wed and are expected to briefly pulse to 30 kt on Wed night, with seas building to 10 ft. Subsequent days will usher 25 kt winds during late night and early morning hours, with seas peaking around 8 ft. Across the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas are expected to range in the 6 to 9 ft range as the northerly wind swell mixed with moderate cross equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing across the waters W of 120W with easterly tradewind waves to produce seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft, covering an area from 02N TO 18N to the W of 108W. This NW swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and significantly reduce the area of 8 ft and higher seas across this zone. A cold front associated with a deep layered low pressure system near 36N141W continues to move slowly SE across the NW waters and extends from 30N134W to beyond 24N140W. NW swell generated by the low is outracing the cold front and producing an area of 8 to 12 ft seas to the W of a line from 30N128W TO 21N140W. W of front over the NW corner W to NW 15 to 20 kt prevail, but will increase to 20-30 kt briefly tonight across the far NW waters. This front will propagate ESE over the next 48 hours and is expected to reach from 30N129W TO 21N133W by Wed night where it will begin to dissipate. This deep layered low pressure system extends troffing SW to the deep tropics S of the Hawaiian Islands. This system is inducing an area of significant low level moisture convergence across the tropical waters to the S and SE of Hawaiian Island Chain, and across the far W waters of the discussion area. An extensive area of deep convection prevails across the tropical waters S of 13N to the S and SE of the Hawaiian Islands and extends NE into the discussion area, where scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm of a line from 13N140W to 27N131W. This weather will remain active through Wed. $$ Stripling