000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1610 UTC Mon Mar 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ axis extends from05N92W TO 02N118W TO 09N132W TO beyond 
08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted 
from 07N TO 18N between 110W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NW swell from a recent cold front continues to propagate 
southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as 
it decays today Mon. Weak high pressure over the NE Pacific 
offshore of California and Oregon will reorganize to the south 
along about 30N tonight through Tue to produce moderate N to NNW 
winds across the offshore waters of Baja California.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh winds are now noted with seas less
than 8 ft. Lighter winds will prevail Mon through Wed. A gale 
event is possible beginning on Wed night.

Gulf of California: A tight pres gradient overnight and this 
morning is producing fresh northerly winds to the N of 25N 
across the Gulf, and will increase to fresh to strong this 
afternoon and tonight as a high center reorganizes along 30N. 
Winds will then diminish to moderate to fresh winds on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala 
continues to vent, but the associated volcanic ash is rather 
light and discrete as it remains over land.

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong NE winds that 
have been pulsing through and downstream of the Gulf the last 
several nights and early morning hours are expected to briefly 
pulse to near 30 kt tonight into early on Tue, with seas 
building to 9 ft. Typical offshore gap winds are then expected 
to remain fresh to strong for the next few days and pulse to 
around 25 kt each late night and early morning, with downstream 
seas peaking at around 8 ft.

In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
will pulse mainly during the overnight and early morning hours 
through Wed. Seas are expected to range in the 7 to 9 ft range.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing across the waters W 
of 120W with easterly tradewind waves to produce seas in the 
range of 8 to 11 ft, covering an area from  06N TO 22N between 
111W AND 140W, and from 22N TO 27N between 112W AND 125W. This 
NW swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and 
reduce the area of 8 ft and higher seas across this zone.

The next cold front is forecast to reach the far NW corner of 
the area this evening. The cold front will extend from a low 
pres area which will remain N of the discussion waters. An area 
of strong S to SW winds is expected N of 29N within 180 nm to 
the east of the front, with seas building  9 to 10 ft. W of 
front over the NW corner W to NW 15 to 20 kt are expected with 8 
to 12 ft NW swell. This front with NW swell will propagate E 
over the next 48 hours.

$$
Stripling