000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N90W to 03N100W to 07N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm N and 30 nm S of the axis between 120W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm N of the axis between 114W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from southern Arizona near 32N113W to across the far northern Gulf of California, and to near 26N120W and continues westward from there as a dissipating stationary front to 24N132W. Associated winds both ahead of and behind the front are 20 kt or less, however NW swell producing seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft are propagating into the waters offshore of Baja California Norte. The front will gradually dissipate as it sinks southward while the swell spreads to the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Weak high pressure behind the front will be replaced by another area of high pressure Mon night and Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly winds will pulse fresh to strong through this evening, then diminish to fresh winds. Seas will be 8-9 ft until the winds diminish. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail through early Wed. In the long term, another stronger gale force gap wind event is possible beginning on Wed night. Gulf of California: the above mentioned cold front will move across the northern and central portions of the Gulf today. The earlier fresh to strong northerly winds over the far northern portion of the gulf have diminished to mainly moderate winds. A tight pres gradient will develop by early on Mon inducing fresh to strong northerly winds from 24N to 28N, diminishing to moderate to fresh winds by early on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala is erupting, but volcanic ash activity is rather light and discrete as it remains over land. In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the forecast period, approaching 30 kt late Mon night into Tue. Resultant seas will occasionally build to around 9 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas with these are expected to be in the range of 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from southern Arizona to 32N113W to across the northern Gulf of California and southwestward to 26N118W where it begins to dissipate, transitioning to a dissipating stationary front at 26N125W and to near 24N131W. An extensive area of NW to N swell producing seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft is within the bounds of the points 30N116W to 23N115W to 20N120W to 20N140W to 30N140W to 29N116W. This swell area will gradually shrink over the next 24 to 48 hours. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and high pressure ridging to its is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the above described area of NW to N swell. The cold front will gradually dissipate through early on Mon. The area of fresh to locally strong trades will gradually decrease in coverage like the swell area mentioned above during the upcoming week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W Mon night. The front will extend from a low pres area which will remain N of the discussion waters, however, associated winds both ahead of and behind the front will increase to fresh to strong over the NW corner near 30N140W, diminishing as the low shifts northeastward during next week. A new batch of NW swell is forecast to propagate southeastward through the waters W of about 130W beginning Tue. $$ Aguirre