000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Mar 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will support strong northerly gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, increasing to minimal gale force tonight, with the help of local drainage effects with seas reaching 10 ft. Winds and seas will peak by early Sat morning, with seas building to around 12 ft. This gap wind event will persist through early Sun morning, but winds will diminish to 20-25 kt, with seas subsiding to 8-9 ft. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 08N81W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 03N110W to 06N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... For the Pacific waters west of the Baja Peninsula, a ridge across the area will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing moderate northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to persist through late today. The front will enter the region Sat and reach a position from the northern Gulf of California across Baja California Norte. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will envelop the waters beyond 90 nm off Baja California north of Cabo San Lorenzo through Sat, then shift south to the Revillagigedo Islands through late Sun as seas start subsiding below 8 ft off Baja California Norte. Winds and seas will continue to diminish on Mon. For the Gulf of California, moderate northerly wind throughout the Gulf will diminish through today ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong western gap winds will enter the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front by Sat night. Strong NW winds will follow the front. NW winds of 20-25 kt will spread across the central and southern waters on Sun night and Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, with seas building to 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong winds are expected through the forecast period, particularly at night. Outside the above mentioned Gulfs, expect gentle to moderate NE-E winds N of 06N, and E-SE winds S of 06N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge along 26N/27N is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds, that covers roughly the waters from 08N to 20N W of 120W. The aerial extent of the trades will diminish some during the weekend as the above mentioned cold front moves across the north waters while weakening. Long period northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft will follow the front. Seas will diminish below 8 ft across the NW waters through Mon, just ahead of a second cold front entering the area through 30N140W. A new batch of NW swell will propagate into the region north of 25N west of 135W through mid week. $$ GR