000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 900 UTC Fri Mar 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will support strong northerly gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, increasing to gale force tonight with the help of local drainage effects with seas reaching 10 ft. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force through early Sat then below 20 kt and 8 ft by Sun as the high pressure north of the area weakens. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 06N84W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N110W to 07N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... For the Pacific waters west of the Baja Peninsula, ridging across the area will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing moderate northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to persist through late today. The front will enter the region Sat and reach a position from the northern Gulf of California across Baja California Norte to 25N135W by late Sat. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will envelop the waters beyond 90 nm off Baja California north of Cabo San Lorenzo through Sat, then shift south to the Revillagigedo Islands through late Sun as seas start subsiding below 8 ft off Baja California Norte. Winds and seas will continue to diminish Mon as the front stalls and weakens south of Baja California. For the Gulf of California, moderate northerly wind throughout the Gulf will diminish through today ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong western gap winds will enter the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front by late Sat. Strong NW winds will follow the front through early next week as it shifts south of the region, before stalling and weakening by Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, with seas building to 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong winds are expected through the forecast period, particularly at night. Outside the above mentioned Gulfs, expect gentle to moderate NE-E winds N of 06N, and E-SE winds S of 06N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge along 27N supporting a small area of fresh to strong trade winds farther south will weaken and shift south ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the north. The trade winds will diminish accordingly through Sat as the front moves south and reaches a position from the northern portion of Baja California Norte to 25N135W by late Sat. Long period northerly swell 8 to 12 ft. The swell will diminish below 8 ft through Mon, just ahead of a second front entering the area through 30N140W. A new batch of NW swell will propagate into the region north of 25N west of 135W through mid week. $$ Christensen