000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops at 06N81W and continues SW to 03N105W, then turns NW to 08N128W, then W to beyond 07N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed to the S of 02N between 90W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ within 150 nm of 07.5N138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from 20N116W to 13N102W with a series of weak cold fronts or troughs forecast to sweep E across the waters N of the ridge this week. Fresh NW winds with 8 to 14 ft seas in long-period NW swell is currently observed across the northern waters behind a weakening cold front extending from 29N115W to 23N127W. The front will lose identity across these waters by late Wed with fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas W of the entire Baja Peninsula. Then expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly around Thu evening. Another cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 12 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance is suggesting the next strong event will begin on Thu night and continue through the weekend, with minimal gale conditions on Fri evening with seas building to 11 ft. Gulf of California: A strong SW breeze along 30N will continue ahead of a cold front drifting E across the northern gulf waters overnight, with strong NW winds expected NW of the front through sunrise on Wed. Fresh to locally strong NW flow forecast across the central waters on Wed with these strong conditions shifting S across the waters from 18N to 24N E of 110W, to include the southern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this week, with seas building to 8 ft near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected through Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting mostly strong NE trades, and 8 to 12 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 08N to 21N W of 117W N of the convergence zone and W of 120W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will begin to relax on Thu and Fri. Long-period NW swell will support 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 24N to 32N between 117W and 140W at sunrise on Wed, with the seas then quickly subsiding through Thu, followed by another rough of large northerly seas propagating S across the subtropical waters on Thu night through the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson