000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1433 UTC Sun Feb 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 13.5N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229- 4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 03N93W to 03N100W to 01N109W to 02N116W. The ITCZ extends from 02N116W to 08N129W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 98W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters W of the Baja Peninsula: Strong northerly winds will develop along 30N on Mon night into Tue. Large NW swell will propagate through the waters W of the Baja Peninsula California on Tue and Wed. Seas will peak near 14 ft N of 28N Tue night into Wed before starting to subside through Thu. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are forecast to increase over the Gulf Thu night. Gulf of California: Winds will increase to a strong SW breeze along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, with seas building to 7 ft. Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast tonight with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and Tue nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1044 mb centered NW of the area near 40N148W extends a ridge SE to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. The pressure gradient will further tighten early this week as the high pressure center shifts closer to the forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of fresh to strong winds across the forecast waters, with seas building to 8 to 13 ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday night, building seas to 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters north of 22N between 118W and 132W by Tue night. $$ AL