000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface through tonight N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 02N100W. The ITCZ axis continues westward from 02N100W to 04N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded by 14N125W to 07N124W to 07N133W to 09N140W to 13N140W to 12N132W to 14N125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt late tonight through Fri morning before diminishing, with seas briefly peaking at 7-8 ft during the event. A weakening cold front is pushing across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Only light to moderate winds are following the front, however, a new cold front or trough will also move into the area by Fri evening. Northerly winds behind that next front will increase to fresh to strong by Fri evening and will spread southward across the Gulf W of 110W through early Sat, with fresh to occasionally strong winds then persisting across the central and southern Gulf through early next week. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft during the stronger winds. High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell to 8 ft N of 25N today. The area of high seas will decay through Fri. Reinforcing high pres behind a new cold front will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte by Fri afternoon, spreading southward Fri night and Sat, with seas reaching to 8-9 ft. Conditions will improve for the second half of the weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Sat, then will pulse to fresh thereafter. Seas will build to 8-10 ft through early Fri, then will peak at 7 or 8 ft thereafter. In the Gulf of Panama, northerly flow will pulse to fresh levels during the overnight and early morning hours through Sat morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front stretches from Baja California Norte near 27N115W to 24.5N130W. Reinforcing strong high pres behind the weakening front will support fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the weekend into early next week. Long period NW swell greater than 7-8 ft dominates the area roughly N of 07N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 10-13 ft from near 10N to 20N W of around 120W through the weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky