000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 UTC Wed Feb 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging 
southward across eastern Mexico and the adjacent waters, to the 
east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range, is supporting gale force
winds offshore and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale 
force winds will likely diminish Thu by evening as the ridging
weakens, with fresh to near gale winds pulsing thereafter.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Offshore northeast winds will
pulse to minimal gale force in the offshore Gulf of Papagayo
waters, with brief possible lulls during the afternoon hours. A
surrounding area of fresh to strong winds, including the Gulf of
Fonseca will also persist. Downstream seas will build to 8-12 ft
during the strongest winds through Thu evening.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both
gale warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast western Panama near 
from 09N84W to 03N99W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N99W to
08N121W, then resumes from 08N130W to 06N140W. No significant 
convection is present.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less will then 
prevail across the Gulf of California through tonight, becoming 
northerly and increasing to moderate to locally fresh by the end 
of the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the region.

Elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters of Mexico,
light to moderate winds will prevail through the week, increasing
to near fresh offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week.
Seas will mainly be 4-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest
swell. 

An inverted trough near 120W will lift NE across the offshore 
waters through the end of the week, with weak low pressure 
possibly and briefly developing along it.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will
continue to extend southward along the Azuero Peninsula with a
locally tight pressure gradient. These winds will persist 
through early Fri, even approaching 30 kt around 06z through
tonight.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle south-southwest winds will generally
prevail south of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Over the north-central waters, 8 to 9 ft mixed northerly swells 
will spread south-southwest through the week, covering the 
waters from 15N to 25N to the west of 120W-125W by Thu. 

A surface trough is analyzed from 

Associated scattered moderate to locally strong convection is 
within an area bounded by 

Winds near the trough are currently moderate, however trades to 
the west of the trough will increase by the end of the week, 
building fresh seas to around 8 ft as the pressure gradient 
tightens between building high pressure north of the area, and 
the troughing. 

$$
Lewitsky