000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140334
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
334 UTC Wed Feb 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A stationary front extends
across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure 
ridging southward across eastern Mexico and the adjacent waters, 
to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range, is supporting 
gale force winds offshore and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The
gale force winds will likely diminish Thu by evening, with fresh
to near gale winds pulsing thereafter.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Offshore northeast winds are in
the process of increasing from strong to gale force offshore of
the Gulf of Papagayo, with a surrounding area of fresh to strong
winds including offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. Winds will pulse
to minimal gale force through at least the next 48 hours with
possible brief lulls during the afternoon hours. Downstream seas
will build to 8-12 ft late this evening through Thu evening.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both
gale warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast western Panama near 
from 09N80W to 06N91W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N91W to
05N100W to 10N120W to 07N135W to 08N140W. No significant
convection is present.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less will then 
prevail across the Gulf of California through mid-week, becoming 
northerly and increasing to moderate to locally fresh by the end
of the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the region.

Elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters of Mexico,
light to moderate winds will prevail through the week, increasing
to near fresh offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week.
Seas will mainly be 4-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest
swell. 

An inverted trough may lift northward across the offshore waters
of Baja California by mid-week, with weak low pressure possibly
and briefly developing along it.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will
continue to extend southward along the Azuero Peninsula with a
locally tight pressure gradient. These winds will persist 
through early Fri, even approaching 30 kt near the Azuero 
Peninsula late tonight and again overnight Wed night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle south-southwest winds will generally
prevail south of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Over the north-central waters, 8 to 9 ft mixed northerly swells 
will spread south-southwest through the week, covering the 
waters from 15N to 25N to the west of 120W-125W by Thu. 

A surface trough is analyzed from 23N122W to 11N124W. Associated
scattered moderate to locally strong convection is within an area
bounded by 25N112W to 11N110W to 08N115W to 11N125W to 21N123W 
to 25N112W. Winds near the trough are currently moderate, however 
trades to the west of the trough will increase by the end of the 
week, building fresh seas to around 8 ft as the pressure gradient
tightens between building high pressure north of the area, and 
the troughing. 

$$
Lewitsky