000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120315
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
315 UTC Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable winds 
currently prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and are 
expected to become offshore tonight. Seas of 3-5 ft seas in 
mixed SW and NW swell also prevail. Little change is expected 
through early Mon. Thereafter, a cold front moving across the 
Gulf of Mexico will reach the SW Gulf and W Bay of Campeche Mon 
morning, with high pressure ridging southward and to the east of 
the Sierra Madre Oriental range. Winds will become northerly and 
increase to fresh to strong by early Mon afternoon across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, then will rapidly increase to minimal gale 
force by early Mon evening. Gale force northerly winds will then 
persist, with the strongest winds to 40 kt expected at night 
starting Tue night. The gale force winds will likely finally 
diminish either late Thu night or early Fri.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on this 
gale warning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 03N78W to 06N87W 
to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05N105W to 08N120W to 
09N140W. No significant convection is noted near the axis.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak low pressure is southwest of southern California with a 
trough extending south of 30N. This is producing mainly light to 
moderate W to NW winds across the Baja offshore waters, which 
should generally continue through the week. Seas are mainly 4-6 
ft but will build to 5-8 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja 
California Norte through the early part of the week. An inverted 
trough may lift northward across the offshore waters of Baja 
California by the middle of the week with weak low pressure 
possibly developing along it.

A weak cold front is dissipating across the northern Gulf of
California, with associated winds behind it diminishing. A 
trough will rotate into the far NW Gulf of California tonight where
it will linger through Tue morning with fresh S to SW winds 
within 60 nm SE of it.

Light to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the offshore 
waters from Cabo San Lucas to the Manzanillo this evening, and 
are light and variable between Manzanillo and Tehuantepec.
Little significant change is expected there for the next few 
days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through the week. After a brief decrease in 
coverage of fresh to strong winds this evening, the winds will 
increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon
and Tue, approaching near gale force by Wed and pulsing to near 
gale force at night through the end of next week.

For the Gulf of Panama, moderate N winds will continue and 
extend S along the Azuero Peninsula to around 06N through Mon. 
Winds will gradually increase across this area Mon afternoon and
become fresh to strong Mon night through early next week as the 
local pressure gradient tightens.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layer low pressure persisting west of the area, and NE of 
the Big Island of Hawaii, is supporting widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 13N to 26N west of 125W. The 
pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong high 
pressure well north of the area is maintaining east to southeast 
moderate to fresh winds across the region west of 130W. Trades 
will increase by the end of the week building fresh seas to 
around 8 ft as the pressure gradient tightens between building 
high pressure north of the area, and broad low pressure troughing
along roughly 118W.

Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of 
California. While this is not expected to move south of 30N, 
associated northerly swell producing seas of 8-10 ft will 
propagate over the region north of 28N between 120W and 130W 
through the early part of the week, eventually mixing with 
components of the NW swell. 

$$
Lewitsky