000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2151 UTC Sat Feb 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N95W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 07N95W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States is ushering in a cooler airmass off the Pacific. This is supporting fresh SW to W gap winds across Baja California Norte into the far northern Gulf of California currently. This will increase tonight, then veer more NW over the far northern Gulf of California early Sun before diminishing. Seas will be limited to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and duration. Strong southerly flow will reappear over the northern Gulf of California Mon into Tue night as another front enters the region but stalls to the north. Elsewhere, the tightening gradient is also supporting increased winds off Baja California Norte, and this will be followed by seas to 8 to 10 ft in NW swell early next week. An upper level trough extending from N central Mexico to across Baja California Sur is digging southward and supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 10N to 14N between 115W to 125W. Looking ahead in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, another round of gale force winds is possible starting Mon night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into the region. Gales may then pulse through at least Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night through early next week. After a brief decrease in coverage of fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue, approaching minimal gale force by Wed and pulsing through the end of next week. For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing N winds to fresh will continue including near the Azuero Peninsula through early morning. These conditions will return Mon night into early Tue, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night into early Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layer low pressure west of the area near Hawaii is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N to 20N west of 135W. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure well north of the area is maintaining east to southeast moderate to fresh winds across the region west of 130W. Longer period NW swell of 7 to 8 ft will continue to propagate through the region north of 10N and west of 125W through the middle of the week mixing with shorter period easterly and southeasterly wind waves. Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of California, While this is not expected move south of 30N, associated northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will propagate over the region north of 25N between 120W and 130W through early next week, eventually mixing with components of the NW swell. $$ Christensen