000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100928
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
928 UTC Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 05N90W to 05N105W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 05N105W to 06N120W to 09N140W. No 
significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a small area of fresh to strong
winds will pulse through sunrise with seas to 8 ft. Fresh seas 
to 8 ft will also persist tonight well offshore due to lingering
NE swell combined with NE swell from the Gulf of Papagayo, but 
this should be subsiding below 8 ft through the early afternoon.
Looking ahead, another round of gale force winds is possible 
starting Mon night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf 
of Mexico into the region. Gales may then pulse through at least 
Wed night.

Farther north, deepening low pressure over the southwest United 
States through today will usher in a cooler airmass off the 
Pacific and support fresh to strong SW to W gap winds across Baja
California Norte into the far northern Gulf of California, but 
with seas limited to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and 
duration. Winds will become NW-N at fresh to strong briefly 
behind the front by early Sun, diminishing by Sun afternoon as 
the low pressure weakens. Similar conditions will develop in the
northern Gulf Mon afternoon ahead of another developing cold
front.

Elsewhere, the tightening gradient will also support increased
winds off Baja California Norte by late today, followed by seas 
to 8 to 10 ft in NW swell early next week. An upper level trough
extending from N central Mexico to across Baja California Sur is
digging southward and supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within an area bounded by 19N105W to 17N102W to
12N113W to 14N119W to 18N115W to 19N105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through early next week. After a brief 
decrease in coverage of fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will
increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for 
Mon and Tue, approaching minimal gale force by Wed and pulsing
through the end of next week.

For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing N winds to fresh will continue 
including near the Azuero Peninsula through early morning. These
conditions will return Mon night into early Tue, increasing to 
fresh to strong Tue night into early Wed.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower 
pressure associated with the convergence zone will support 
moderate trade winds during the next several days. On Sun, a 
batch of NW swell of 8-9 ft will cross S of 30N, and will reach 
as far S as 27N and as far W as 130W by Mon morning, gradually 
subsiding through Wed morning.

$$
Lewitsky