000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
301 UTC Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N74W to 05N99W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 05N99W to 06N120W to 08N140W. No significant 
convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a small area of fresh to strong
winds will pulse through sunrise with seas to 8 ft. Fresh seas 
as high as 9 ft will also persist tonight well offshore due to 
lingering NE swell, but this should be subsiding below 8 ft 
through morning. Looking ahead, another round of gale force winds
is possible starting Mon night as a cold front moves across the 
western Gulf of Mexico into the region.

Farther north, deepening low pressure over the southwest United 
States through Sat will usher in a cooler airmass off the Pacific
and support fresh to strong SW to W gap winds across Baja 
California Norte into the far northern Gulf of California, but
with seas limited to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and
duration. Winds will become NW-N at fresh to strong briefly
behind the front by early Sun, diminishing by Sun afternoon as 
the low pressure weakens.

Elsewhere, the tightening gradient will also support increased
winds off Baja California Norte by late Sat, followed by seas to
8 to 10 ft in NW swell early next week. A pair of weakening 
upper level lows over the Baja California peninsula with an upper
trough extending SE are supporting scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters from Cabo 
Corrientes to south of the Revillagigedo Islands.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through early next week. Areal coverage of the
gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo have increased and are 
allowing the wind-generated seas to propagate further downwind 
from its source region, merging with the seas downwind from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat. After a brief decrease in 
coverage of fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will increase in
coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue,
approaching minimal gale force by Wed.

For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing N winds to fresh will continue 
including near the Azuero Peninsula through Sat morning. These 
conditions will return Mon night into early Tue, increasing to 
fresh to strong Tue night into early Wed.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower 
pressure associated with the convergence zone will support 
moderate trade winds during the next several days. On Sun, a 
batch of NW swell of 8-9 ft will cross SE of 30N, and will 
reach as far S as 27N and as far W as 130W by Mon morning,
gradually subsiding through Wed morning.

$$
Lewitsky