000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 UTC Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N76W to 04N81W to 05N86W to 04N94W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 08N116W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 116W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region has weakened as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E. This has allowed winds to diminish from gale force yesterday afternoon to strong speeds this morning. Residual fresh to strong northerly flow will diminish by this afternoon as the pressure gradient continues to weaken, then will pulse back to fresh to strong in response to nocturnal drainage flow late tonight into early Mon, then again late Mon into early Tue before finally tapering off. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind may commence over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night in response to a strong cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico. This event will continue pulsing through Fri night. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to run between 3 and 6 ft through Mon as a fairly quiet pattern prevails. Long period NW swell will cause seas to begin building to between 5 and 7 ft along the Baja Peninsula Tue and Wed. Seas in this region will begin to subside on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Washington, DC has detected occasional emissions from the summit of the volcano during the past 6 hours. However, any volcanic ash emissions are expected to remain within 30 miles of the summit and well inland during the next 24 hours. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase next Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through Wed morning, then winds will become moderate to fresh Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist during the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently N of Hawaii are entering the NW portion of the discussion area. The swell will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas eventually stretching from 10N to 30N between 125W and 140W by Mon evening. This area of seas will subside by Tue night as the NW swell decay. A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 16N and W of 134W. This area will slowly propagate W and merge with the new set of NW swell mentioned in the previous paragraph this afternoon. $$ CAM