000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2111 UTC Sat Feb 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N76W to 03N80W to 06N85W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was noted within an area bounded by 14N110W to 10N115W to 11N119W to 09N128W to 10N133W to 16N113W to 14N110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region has weakened allowing for gale force winds to diminish in the past few hours. Remnant fresh to strong northerly flow will diminish by Sun afternoon as it continues to weaken, then will pulse back to fresh to strong late Sun into early Mon, then again late Mon into early Tue before diminishing. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind even may commence in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night, pulsing through next Fri morning. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 3 to 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Although a prominent hotspot is evident in satellite imagery, no volcanic ash signal was found by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Washington, DC. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase next Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently well to the NW of the discussion area will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas stretching from 10N to 30N between 130W and 140W on Sun and Mon. A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8-9 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 14N and W of 126W. This area will slowly propagate W through Sun afternoon, eventually merging with the new set of NW swell through the early part of the week. $$ Lewitsky