000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030402
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
249 UTC Sat Feb 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong high pressure ridge 
along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico is 
maintaining a strong pressure gradient over the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient will be strong enough to 
generate gales of the Gulf of Tehuantepec until 18Z Sat. From Sat
evening through Mon, the high pressure ridge over the western 
Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and allow winds over the Gulf 
to becoming strong by Sun morning and light by Mon morning. 
Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

EASTERN PACIFIC ASHFALL ADVISORY:
Fuego Volcano at 14.46N 90.88W over S Guatemala is erupting.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface W of the volcano to the
Gulf of Tehuantepec from 12N to 15N between 91W and 96W. Low
level visibility may be reduced to 1 NM. Mariners should exercise
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash... you are encouraged
to report the observation to the National Weather Service by
calling 305-229-4425. On 04/0000 UTC conditions are forecast to 
improve.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 03N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N94W to 09N114W, then resumes from 08N118W to 
07N123W to 08W130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11N between 
121W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to special features section 
for more information on the next gale force gap wind event. 

Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 
4 to 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each
night over the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri night. Areal coverage
of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri.
This will allow the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of
papagayo to combine with the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate 
offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to
strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well 
during the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds will prevail S of 09N this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8 ft seas 
located from 09N to 12N between 123W and 131W. This area will 
slowly propagate W and subside through the weekend. Another 
pulse of NE swell generated from the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event will propagate across the waters S of 14N and E of 
100W. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure extending SW across the
NW part of the discussion area will persist the next several 
days. NW swell associated with a nearly stationary frontal 
boundary W of the area will build E from 10N to 30N between 130W 
and 140W Sun and Mon.

$$
CAM