000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico will sweep SW across the Gulf of Mexico through Mon. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front has increased northerly winds to minimal gale force across Tehuantepec this morning. Winds will increase to strong gales tonight, then reach storm force Mon evening through Tue. The area of high pressure dominating the Gulf of Mexico will then start to shift eastward, loosening the pressure gradient. Winds will diminish to gale force Wed, and fall below gale force on Thu. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N76W TO 05.5N80W TO 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 06.5N108W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm S and 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 104W and 116W, and between 129W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section above for more on the upcoming storm force gap wind event. As the winds increase from gale to storm force across Tehuantepec, and very large and broad wind field will extend well to the SW of the coastline, to near 09N101W by Tue morning, with a very large area of 10 to 20 plus ft seas. Gulf of California: Winds of 20-30 kt prevail over N through central portions of the Gulf of California this morning. The fresh to strong winds will prevail through Mon morning, with the potential for small areas of winds reaching 30 kt, mainly N of 29N, this afternoon through tonight. Peak seas are expected to build to 9 ft today. NW swell will continue subside over the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte, where seas are currently 5 to 8 ft this morning. Seas west of the Baja Peninsula will subside below 8 ft by this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse to strong the next several nights over the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail through Mon then strengthen Tue through Wed. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of 09N the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb is centered north of the area near 38N126W, and extends a broad ridge southward across the discussion area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades from 08N to 20N and W of 119W, where seas are reaching 13 ft. NW swell also continues to propagate across these waters and is mixing with the wind generated NE waves. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell cover much of the forecast waters west of 110W. The area of high pressure will shift further N and away from the area during the next couple of days. This will decrease areal coverage of the fresh to strong trades Sunday, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less by Mon night, and seas gradually subsiding to 8-10 ft across the trade wind belt. $$ Stripling