000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250320
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in 
southern Mexico will produce sustained gale force winds over the 
Gulf region through early Sat. Winds should peak Thu at 45 kt 
with maximum seas of 17 ft. Propagating N to NE swell will cause 
seas to build to 8 ft well away from its source region through 
Fri night. Strong winds over the Gulf should diminish briefly 
Sat evening as high pres shifts E into the western Atlc. Another 
gale is possible Sunday evening as a strong cold front crosses 
the western Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the East Pacific 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends westward from 08N78W to 05N100W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 07N114W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 
116W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above. 

Gulf of California: NW winds in the Gulf will diminish tonight 
as high pres north of the area weakens. Winds will increase this 
weekend as high pressure builds northwest of the region. 

Decaying NW swell is maintaining 6-7 ft seas off the coast of 
Baja California. A fresh set of NW swell will propagate into the 
waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Fri evening. Seas 
associated with this swell will peak near 10 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Sat night as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf 
of Mexico over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to 
gentle offshore flow will prevail, and gentle southerly winds 
will dominate the area S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across NW forecast waters from 32W130W to 
28N140W. Scatterometer data shows fresh SW winds N of 30N ahead 
of the front, and moderate N to NW winds west of the boundary. 
The front will weaken and become nearly stationary from 31N121W 
to 26N132W by Thu evening. Large long period NW swell will sweep 
into the northern part of the forecast area through Sat. Fresh 
trade winds from 10N-20N west of 128W will support 9-11 ft seas 
within the region of strongest trade winds in mixed long period 
NW swell and short period NE wind waves. High pressure building 
behind the weakening front will increase the coverage of fresh 
to strong trades Thu through Fri night.
   
$$
Mundell