000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong gale that will persist through the middle of the week likely ending around sunset on Thu, with winds forecast at 20 kt or less on Sat afternoon. The resultant plume of NE swells, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, will propagate outward crossing the equator between 95W and 110W on Mon afternoon, while reaching far W as 10N120W late Mon. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A band of strong to near gale force NE winds extends SW from the Gulf of Papagayo to near 06N92W with a narrow band of gale winds expected to redevelop tonight from near 10.5N86W to 09N87W. Additionally, expect frequent gusts of 40 to 45 kt to surround the near gale winds. Maximum seas of 11 ft are forecast through Mon. Strong nocturnal pulses are expected to resume on Tue night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends WSW from the Pacific coast of Colombia at 07.5N78W to 08N86W to 05N98W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues W-NW through an embedded 1011 mb surface low at 08N118W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of line from 05N77W to 09N113W to 06N121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special feature section for information about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. W of the Baja California Peninsula: A gentle variable breeze will continue around a weak N to S orientated trough along 115W, with the possibility of weak surface low forming briefly. The trough will shift W reaching along 119W early tonight, then move back E again late tonight into Mon and gradually lose identity along 115W as as ridge axis builds E into the area along 22N116W to 15N101W on Mon night. The leading edge of large NW swell will arrive near 30N120W early Mon, with seas of 8 to 13 ft expected W of Baja on Mon night through Wed primarily due to 20 to 22 second long-period NW swell. Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across across the entire gulf waters through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See special feature section for information about a gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gulf of Fonseca: Strong N to NE winds will surge through the gaps across the Pacific waters to the N of 11N and E of 92W, including the Gulf of Fonseca through early Mon. The NE swell from these gap winds, and large ENE swells from the Gulf of Papagayo event further to the S, are merging with NW-N swell propagating S from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, setting up 7 to 11 ft seas across the offshore waters from roughly 04N to 14N W of 87W. These seas will continue through early Tue before subsiding from the E. Fresh to locally strong N winds are forecast across the Gulf of Panama early tonight. Elsewhere, light to moderate SW winds will persist S of Costa Rica and Panama through Sat with seas generally between 3 and 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front slowing from 32N134W to 26N140W will stall from 32N131W to 26N140W on Mon, and dissipate on Mon night as a secondary cold front moves into the area. Scattered moderate convection is currently observed within 240 nm E of the front. Large 12 to 22 ft seas, primarily due to long period 17 to 22 second NW swell, will propagate SE across the discussion area reaching the Pacific coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula on Mon. Seas will then gradually subside through Wed. $$ Nelson