000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sun Dec 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale-Force Winds... High pressure over the Sierra Madre Oriental range is forcing a gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Earlier nocturnally supported gale-force winds have ended, with peak 30 kt winds expected to continue through this evening. Then, winds will increase once again to gale force late tonight. The gale-force winds will then persist until Tue morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air enters the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, fresh to strong winds are expected to persist over the Gulf through Friday, strongest at night. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should peak around 13 ft on Monday morning, with peak wave heights of 8 ft or greater through at least Friday. Please refer to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N78W to 06N90W to 07N102W. The ITCZ continues from 07N102W to 08N115W to 07N133W to 12N140W. A surface trough extends from 16N119W to the ITCZ axis near 09N120W. Numerous moderate to strong convection are from 08N to 19N between 108W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 127W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds with benign marine conditions are expected through Thu. Late this week, NW swell of 6 to 8 ft may clip the western waters offshore Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will continue pulsing through Wednesday night, with the broadest extent of the winds occurring Mon night and Tue night. Seas will peak around 8 ft. NE swell to 9 ft will clip the western offshore waters of Guatemala Monday and Tuesday as swell disperse from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft can be expected during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front enters the discussion area near 30N136W and extends to 25N140W. The combination of the front and associated low pressure lifting north of the area supports fresh to strong S winds within about 180 nm east of the front, N of 28N. The low will weaken through tonight as it continues to move north and away from our area, while the front stalls and begins to transition to a surface trough. Winds will quickly diminish to below 20 kt by this afternoon. However, lingering NW swell, initially of 8 to 14 ft, will slowly propagate SE through Tuesday. By Tuesday, peak wave heights will be 8 to 9 ft mainly N of 15N and W of 122W. Forecast models are also hinting at increasing winds late Tue into Wed between a nearly stationary surface trough currently along about 120W from 09N to 16N, and high pressure building to the north. Winds are currently forecast to peak near 20 kt Tue through Thu, and the combination of the wind waves and NW swell will allow seas to reach near 9 ft over this area. On Thu, a small area of N swell greater than 8 ft will reach the waters N of 28N between 120W and 127W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail with seas between 6 and 8 ft. $$ Latto