000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W across Costa Rica along 09N to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, and continues W to 08N100W, then dips SW to 09N115W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues W to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N82W to 09N91W to 08N101W to 09N113W TO 12N122W TO 08N138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high centered near 29N124W is forecast to drift S 25N123W on Thu night, and then shift N of the area on Fri leaving a ridge S across the far offshore to the W of 100W. This will result in gentle to locally moderate N breezes across the waters W of Baja California through Fri. Expect moderate to locally fresh NW flow N of 25N within 90 nm of the Pacific coast of Baja beginning Fri night, with these conditions spreading S across all waters W of Baja by late Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow, with seas building to a max of 10 ft, are forecast through sunrise on Sat. These strong to near gale conditions will resume late Sat night in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, and then increase to minimal gale force on Sun morning through Mon morning, with seas building to a max of 16 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14N95.5W on Sun night. Gulf of California: A gentle NW breeze is forecast through Thu, becoming light and variable winds Thu night and Fri. Strong N winds are expected across the gulf waters N of 30N beginning early Sat in the wake of a cold front. Strong NW winds will spread s across the central gulf waters on Sat night through Sun morning with seas building to about 6 ft. Fresh NW flow expected on Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate N-NE drainage winds are forecast during the overnight hours through Sat night with seas building to 5 ft downstream near 10N87W. Fresh drainage winds are expected on Sun and Mon nights. Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of 09N through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 30N138W with a developing cold front extending S to 24N140W. Long-period NW-N swell will maintain seas to 10 ft, mainly W of the front through tonight. The low will move E to near 31N130W late tonight trailing a cold front SW to 21N140W. The low will move further S to near 28N128W on Fri night, with the front and low losing identity on Sat. Strong SE return flow will develop N of 22N W of 137W on Sat night in advance of the next cold front reaching 32N140W on Sun night. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will persist farther S through Sun. $$ Nelson