000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
236 UTC Thu Nov 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough reaches from 09N85W to 10N89W to 08N115W where 
it transitions to the intertropical convergence zone, which 
extends farther west to beyond 08N140W. No signficant convection 
is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure lingering over central Mexico will support pulses 
of fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
late Thu. While this high pressure will weaken, another area of 
stronger high pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico Fri 
and Sat behind a cold front moving across the basin. This will 
allow more steady fresh to strong gap winds from Thu night into 
Sat morning, diminishing afterward as the high pressure weakens. 
Looking ahead, another strong front will enter the Gulf of Mexico
late Sat, followed by strong high pressure building into 
northeast and central Mexico through Sun. This will support a 
return to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early 
Sun, reaching minimal gale force late Sun.

Weak high pressure centered near 29N124W will support light to 
gentle breezes across the waters off Baja California and the Gulf
of California through Fri, with offshore seas of generally 3 to 
5 ft. NW winds will increase with 5 to 7 ft seas off Baja 
California Norte Fri night as a weak cold front moves through the
region north of 26N. Strong high pressure building north of the 
area over the Great Basin will support fresh to strong NW winds 
across the northern Gulf of California early Sat, spreading into 
the central Gulf of California late Sat into Sun before 
diminishing late Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Low pressure over the southwest Caribbean had been supporting
fresh to strong SW winds off western Panama yesterday into this
morning. However, the low pressure is starting to move farther
north and away from the region, and recent scatterometer
satellite data indicates the winds are diminishing. This trend
will persist and seas will subside from a high of 9 ft to 5 to 7
ft tonight. Gentle to moderate S to SW breezes with 4 to 6 ft
seas will prevail through Sun S of the monsoon trough. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
also expected N of the monsoon trough through Sun

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft 
within 120 nm north of a weak 1013 mb low pressure area centered 
near 22N135W. Concurrent scatterometer satellite data showed 
light to gentle breezes wrapping around the low, indicating the 8
ft seas are mainly due to residual mixed swell. These seas 
should be subsiding below 8 ft through tonight.

Farther north, 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 30N138W
along a frontal boundary. The low pressure and attendant front
will move eastward to the north of 25N through Fri. NW swell of 8
to 10 ft will follow the front through Thu, then subside below 8
ft by Fri. 

Gentle to moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will persist
farther south through Sun.

$$
Christensen