000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2136 UTC Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure is located near 18N130W moving NNW at 10 
kt. Scatterometer data continues to show strong winds within 210
nm to the north of the center of the low pressure. Concurrent altimeter
satellite data is indicated seas to 12 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm on the east side of the low
pressure. The low is at the base of a short wave trough aloft
passing 130W from 14N to 25N. This is bringing both increased dry
air and shear over the low pressure, making environmental 
conditions less favorable for development, becoming unfavorable 
for tropical cyclone formation by Tuesday night as the low
dissipates.

A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
recent scatterometer pass showed winds to 35 kt within 30 nm off
the coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge along the eastern 
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains combined with low pressure 
in the SW Caribbean is maintaining a tight pressure gradient 
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Model guidance suggests that 
the current synoptic pattern will remain favorable for very 
strong gap wind flow through early Wed morning, with peak winds 
between 35 and 40 kt through early Tue morning. Max sea heights 
will be 12 to 16 feet, then subside slowly Tue. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below gale force by early Wed afternoon as 
the ridge weakens some. Northerly winds in the 20 to 30 kt range 
will continue to blow across the Tehuantepec region through Fri. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 07N110W to 13N125W to 
11.5N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information 
regarding the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

A ridge will dominate the waters W of Baja California the next 
several days. The pressure gradient W of Baja California will 
tighten slightly today and Tue as high pressure shifts closer to
the coast, resulting in fresh to locally strong NW winds N of 
28N between 116W and 120W by early Tue morning, with seas 
building to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to 
persist across the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, mainly light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft will prevail through Wed 
night. A weakening cold front will move across the northern Baja 
California peninsula on Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected N of 
the monsoon trough, which will fluctuate between 07N and 10N 
through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft are forecast S of the monsoon trough through Tuesday. 
Stronger SW winds south of the monsoon trough will build seas to 
above 8 ft south of Panama Tuesday through Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure centered near 18N130W is discussed above in Special
Features section. Long period northerly swell will move into the
NW portion of the forecast discussion area through the next 36
hours, but stay mainly N of 28N and W of 135W. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft will persist elsewhere.

$$
Christensen