000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... Gale-force winds from the N and NE are being reported by scatterometer data in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the Eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Higher surface pressures are behind a western Gulf of Mexico cold front. Cooler air is in eastern Mexico. Comparatively warmer sea surface temperatures already are in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The surface pressure gradient has tightened. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish only slightly through Saturday, and maximun sea heights will range from 12 feet to 15 feet. Model guidance suggests that this event will last through early next week, with winds increasing again to 35-40 knots from Sunday night through Monday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 10N84W, to 08N95W, 10N107W, 08N116W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 11N129W, to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 108W and 113W, within 45 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 109W and 114W, and within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 127W and 134W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 113W and 138W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 100W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 22N between 136W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for information about the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. A ridge will dominate the waters W of Baja California during the next several days, while a trough will meander along the coast of NW Mexico and into the Gulf of California. Moderate NW flow will prevail across the waters W of Baja California from today until early Monday. The surface pressure gradient W of Baja California will tighten significantly. Expect fresh to strong NW wind flow from early monday to early tuesday, and fresh to strong NW wind flow and seas to 8 feet from Thursday morning until Friday morning...N of 25N E of 118W. Long period NW swell and sea heights to 10 feet, associated with a dissipated cold front, will propagate southeastward across the waters N of 23N west of Baja California today, and then decay slowly and spread southward Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal drainage flow will support pulsing moderate to fresh winds during the overnight hours for the next several days, with seas occasionally building to 5 or 6 ft downstream of the Gulf near 11N87W. Light variable winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are expected elsewhere north of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are forecast S of 09N the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period NW swell associated with a dissipated cold front are found NW of a line from NW of a line from 30N116W to 12N126W to 18N140W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet. The swell will propagate southeastward through the area, with seas 8 feet or greater covering the waters N of 15N W of 115W by tonight, then to near 8 feet throughout the waters by Sunday evening. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 11N129W, in the monsoon trough. The low center is forecast to move westward during the weekend. Model guidance indicates a tightening pressure gradient between the low pressure center and comparatively higher pressure to the north into early next week. This situation may allow the trades to increase to fresh to strong across the waters S of 20N and north of the convergence zone, supporting sea heights in the range from 8 feet to 10 feet. $$ Mt