000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061622 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W and meanders westward to low pres near 09.5N110W 1010 MB TO 10.5N123W TO 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located within 180 nm S of trough between 105W and 109W, between 118W and 122W, and W of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrow ridge oriented from NNW to SSE will meander across the area E of 123W through late Tue, then reorganize as a broad ridge extending well W of the area through Friday. Moderate northerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night, with afternoon heating producing locally fresh winds near the coast through the evening hours. Winds will freshen Wednesday through Friday as the ridge broadens and tightens the pressure gradient across the waters N of 24N, with strong NW flow expected along the northern Baja Peninsula on Fri. By then, long-period NW swell will arrive across the waters N of 26N with combined seas of 6 to 9 ft W of Baja. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW flow is expected across the Gulf waters S of 28N through Tue night when the gradient will tighten slightly as the ridge to the west broadens. This will result in a narrow swath of strong NW winds forecast from 25N to 27N Wednesday and Wednesday night, where seas will build to 6-7 ft. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish through the end of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, with seas building to a max of 9 ft, are forecast through Wed afternoon. The pressure gradient should relax briefly during the afternoons supporting mostly a fresh N breeze. These northerly gaps winds are expected to increase to near gale force on Wed night and further increase to minimal gale force on Thu evening through Fri morning, with seas then building to 12 ft downstream of the gulf near 14N95.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds are forecast during the overnight hours beginning this evening and continuing through Fri night, with seas occasionally building to 7 ft downstream of the Gulf near 11N87W. Light and variable winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas are expected elsewhere to the N of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast S of 09N through the week. By Thursday, long period southern hemispheric SW swell will begin to move into the regional waters to produce large and dangerous surf conditions through Saturday along the coasts and offshore reefs of southern Mexico and Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad low pressure is analyzed across the subtropics between west of the narrow ridge extending S across the offshore waters W of the Baja Peninsula and a broad ridge extending S across the waters W of 135W. A weakening surface low is moving NE near 10 kt and located near 29N128.5W, just to the south of an old frontal boundary, now a shearline, that extends from 30N126W TO 29.5N130W TO 25N140W. This low will move NE and weaken through Tue, as the shear line lifts N and dissipates. Currently, NE winds of 20-25 kt continue N of the shearline, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. The associated winds and seas will gradually diminish through Tuesday night across this area. A cold front will move SE of 30N140W by Wed afternoon. Associated winds will remain 20 kt or less across the discussion waters, while NW swell of 8 to 13 ft will manage to move into the NW and N central waters through the end of the week. The leading edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and cover the waters N of 15N W of 115W by Fri. $$ Stripling