000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060915
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 UTC Mon Nov 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to low pressure near
09N110W to 11N123W to 10N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 08N between 93W and 96W, and also from 
08N to 12N between 124W and 132W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 09N between 105W and 107W, from
06N to 08N between 118W and 122W, and also from 10N to 14N W of 
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge oriented from NW to SE will meander across the area
through Tue, then will shift slightly W through mid week. 
Moderate northerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are forecast across 
the EPAC waters W of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night, then 
the N winds will increase to a fresh breeze through Thu night 
with guidance hinting at strong NW flow along the northern Baja 
Peninsula on Fri. By then, long-period NW swell will arrive 
across the waters N of 26N with combined seas of 6 to 9 ft W of 
Baja.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, 
with seas building to a max of 9 ft, are forecast through Wed 
afternoon. The pressure gradient should relax briefly during the 
afternoons supporting mostly a fresh N breeze. These northerly 
gaps winds are expected to increase to near gale force on Wed 
night and further increase to minimal gale force on Thu evening 
through Fri morning, with seas then building to 12 ft downstream 
of the gulf near 14N95.5W.  

Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW flow is 
forecast across the Gulf waters S of 28N through Tue night when 
the gradient will tighten a little resulting in a narrow swath of
strong NW winds forecast from 25N to 27N on Wed. Light and
variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less are then expected for the
end of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
  
Gulf of Papagayo:  Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds are 
forecast during the overnight hours beginning this evening and 
continuing through Fri night with seas occasionally building to 
7 ft downstream near 11N87W.

Light and variable winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas are expected 
elsewhere to the N of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast S of 09N 
through the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad low pressure is analyzed across the subtropics between a 
ridge extending S across the offshore waters W of the Baja 
Peninsula and a broad ridge extending S across the waters W of 
135W. A surface low is near 27N133W, and is expected to move NE
reaching 30N127W by Tue afternoon before dissipating. Scattered 
moderate convection is currently between 120 nm and 300 nm in the
NE quadrant of the low. Fresh to near gale force NE winds were
recently sampled by scatterometers, with 8 to 12 ft seas recently
depicted by an altimeter pass W of a line from roughly 30N127W to 
25N140W. The winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside
as the low tracks NE.

A cold front will move SE of 30N140W by Wed afternoon. Associated
winds will remain 20 kt or less across the discussion waters,
while NW swell of 8 to 13 ft will manage to move into the NW and
N central waters through the end of the week. The leading edge of
seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and cover the waters N of
15N W of 115W by Fri.

$$
Lewitsky