000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 05 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W-SW across the Caribbean from the NW coast of Colombia at 11N76W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N83W, then wiggles W to 10N106W, then turns NW through an embedded 1012 mb surface low at 12N122W, then SW to 09N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 75 nm of 07N92W within 90 nm either side of a line from 12N98W to 09N102W to 08N116W, within 90 nm of 10N125W and within 45 nm either side of a line from 09N131W to 10N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong within 75 nm of 18.5N118W. A trough is analyzed from 30N125W to 21N129W with scattered moderate convection noted N of 27N within 60 nm W of the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A N to S orientated ridge will meander from near 32N122W to 14.5N105W through Tue then shift slightly W during mid week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Penisula through early Wed, with seas expected to gradually build to 5 to 8 ft by late in the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong northerly drainage flow, with seas to 9 ft, forecast through early Mon, then the pressure gradient will relax briefly on Mon afternoon supporting a fresh N breeze. Strong N-NE flow will resume on Mon night and continue into Tue morning when the gradients will briefly relax again. Strong northerly pulses will resume on Tue evening and continue through Wed increasing to near gale force on Wed night and Thu, further increasing to minimal gale force on Thu evening through Fri morning, with seas then building to 12 ft downstream of the gulf near 14N95.5W. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW flow forecast across the gulf waters S of 28N through Tue night when the gradient will tighten a little resulting in a narrow swath of strong NW winds forecast from 25N to 27N on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds, with 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast during the overnight hours beginning on Mon night and continuing through Fri night with seas building to 7 ft downstream near 11N87W. Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad low pressure is analyzed across the subtropics between a ridge extending S across the offshore waters W of the Baja Peninsula and a broad ridge extending S across the waters W of 135W. A surface low is forecast to develop tonight near 27N131W, and move N stalling near 30N126W on Mon and Tue before dissipating. Strong NE winds, with 8 to 12 ft seas, are observed W of a line from 32N132W TO 26N140W. These strong conditions will continue over the NW semicircle of the low pressure early Mon, then diminish Mon afternoon, with associated seas subsiding to less than 8 ft on Mon night. A new round of NW swell in the form of 8 to 10 ft seas will arrive with a cold front along 32N W of 135W on Tue night. The front will reach from 32N127w to 27N138W on Wed night, and gradually wash out on Thu. The associated long-period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 10 ft seas, will spread E across the waters N of 15N W of 115W late in the week. $$ Nelson