000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 930 UTC Sun Nov 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pressure near 09N104W to low pressure near 12N120W to 09N136W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 111W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high will meander near 30N120W through the early morning, then will shift N of the area by midday leaving a N to S oriented ridge. The ridge will then meander from near 32N120W to 17N110W through the middle of the week. Gentle to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Peninsula through today, with model guidance then suggesting that the pressure gradient will tighten a little supporting moderate to locally fresh NW flow beginning this evening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow, with seas of 8 to 10 ft, is expected through early Mon, then the pressure gradient will relax briefly on Mon afternoon supporting a fresh N breeze. Strong N-NE flow will resume on Mon evening, with strong northerly pulses then continuing through Wed. Near gale conditions are expected on Wed night and Thu, further increasing to minimal gale force on Thu evening, with seas then building to 12 ft. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW flow expected across the gulf waters S of 26N through the early morning. These conditions will spread N across the waters S of 29N by midday, and continue through mid week, with an embedded narrow swath of strong NW winds forecast from 25N to 27N on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds, with 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast during the overnight hours beginning on Mon night. Light and variable winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, are analyzed from 30N131W to 25N134W to 21N138W. Fresh to strong NE winds with 8 to 13 ft seas are observed W of a line from 30N133W to 26N140W. The trough will meander today and a surface low will develop along it near the trough near 27N131W through late tonight. The low will drift NE-E through the early part of the week with the pressure gradient relaxing, and winds diminishing to 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft. A cold front will drop SE into the area by early Wed, reaching from 30N129W to 27N138W by Thu evening. Winds are currently forecast to remain 20 kt or less with the frontal intrusion, however, large NW swell of 8 to 13 ft will arrive with the boundary. $$ Lewitsky