000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041613 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to low pres near 08N100W 1010 MB to low pres near 13.5N117W 1010 MB to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 11N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the trough axis between 89W and 103W, and within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ axis W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface high will meander across the offshore waters near 30N120W through late Sun, then become reinforced by high pressure off the coast of California building SSE and along the outer waters through early Tue. Gentle to locally moderate northerly wind flow, and 4 to 5 ft seas, are expected across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Penisula through Sun, with model guidance suggesting freshening NW winds will develop within 60 nm of the coast on Sun evening, with these fresh conditions persisting through Tue. Seas will increase 4 to 6 ft Mon through Tue. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow across the Gulf waters S of 26N this morning will freshen this afternoon and persist through Tue as a modest pressure gradient associated with the high offshore prevails. Seas across the southern waters will build from 2 to 4 ft this morning to 4 to 6 ft by Mon. Light variable winds will prevail elsewhere across northern portions of the Gulf through Mon as local effects and the heating of the day drive the local winds. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Weak high pressure centered across the NE Gulf of Mexico continue to produce a modest pressure gradient across SE Mexico and the Tehuantepec region and will result in strong northerly gap winds persisting through Tue morning, and pulsing to just below gale force each early morning. Model guidance suggests that the next gale event will occur across the region Wed night as a new cold front moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, with moderate flow expected tonight. Model guidance suggesting fresh drainage flow will begin again on Sun night. Light NW-N winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas S of the monsoon trough into tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data showed a distinct increasing in NE winds spreading SSW behind a cold front across the NW waters. The front now extends from 30N136W to 28N140W and is expected to move to 30N133W TO 29.5N135W TO 25N140W and become stationary Sun morning. Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific behind the front will continue to drive NE winds 20-25 kt behind the front where seas of 9 to 12 ft will continue. A NE to SW aligned trough currently lies about 200 nm to the SE of the front and will drift SE ahead of the front through Mon morning when low pressure is expected to develop along the N end of the trough near 29.5N127W. Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific at that time will continue to produce NE winds of 20-25 kt across the NW waters through late Tue, with seas continuing at 8 to 12 ft in mixed N and NE swell. Moderate NE to E trade winds will prevail elsewhere N of the convergence zone to about 22N-23N through Mon with seas remaining 5-7 ft. $$ Stripling