000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N94W to 11N112W to 09N121W to 10N128W. The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough axis between 89W and 103W, and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis W of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high will meander near 30N120W through late Mon then shift N of the area. Gentle to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Penisula through Sun, with model guidance suggesting fresh NW winds will develop S of 25N within 60 nm of the coast on Sun evening, with these fresh conditions spreading N along the entire Baja Peninsula on Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A tight pressure gradient will result in strong to near gale force winds through Tue morning with model guidance then suggesting that another gale event, with seas building to 12 ft, may begin on Wednesday. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow is expected across the gulf waters S of 26N this morning, with similar conditions developing again in the evening, spreading N across the waters S of 29N on Sun and Sun night. Light variable winds will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are forecast in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, with moderate flow expected tonight. Model guidance suggesting fresh drainage flow will begin again on Sun night. Light NW-N winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas S of the monsoon trough into tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data shows a distinct boundary along a cold front between strong NE winds north of a line from 35N128W to 28N143W, which includes the far NW portion of the discussion area. This reflects a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure near 46N148W and a trough stretching from 30N131W to 24N140W. The trough will linger across the NW waters through early Mon, but the cold front will stall by tonight. Strong NE winds will spread S across the waters N of 25N W of 135W today, with highest winds and seas W of a line from 32N130w to 27N40W, then begin to diminish tonight as the gradient weakens. Moderate NE to E trade winds will prevail elsewhere N of the convergence zone through the weekend with seas remaining 5-7 ft. $$ Mundell