000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 04 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W between 09N and 11N from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 11N75W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N79W to 09N94W to 08N91W, then turns NW to a an embedded 1010 mb low pressure at 14N115.5W. Scatterometer data indicates that an ITCZ develops at 12N129W and extends SW to beyond 09N140W. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at 17N129W with a trough SW to 14.5N137W. Scattered moderate is noted E of the low within 75 nm of 16.5N124.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 18N111W TO 13N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of lines from 08N90W to 08N107W, and from 12N130W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high will meander near 30N120W through late Mon then shift N of the area. Gentle to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Penisula through Sun, with model guidance suggesting fresh NW winds will develop S of 25N within 60 nm of the coast on Sun evening, with these fresh conditions spreading N along the entire Baja Peninsula on Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A tight pressure gradient will result in strong to near gale force through Tue morning with model guidance then suggesting that the next gale event, with seas building to 12 ft, will begin on Tue evening. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow expected across the gulf waters S of 26N tonight into early Sat, with these conditions developing again Sat evening, and spreading N across the waters S of 29N on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast across and 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, with moderate flow expected on Sat night. Model guidance is suggesting fresh drainage flow will begin again on Sun night. Light NW-N winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed at 33N131W, trailing a cold front SW along 32N. The low will move NE of the area with the cold front reaching a position from 32N125W to 30N130W to 22N140W on Sat morning. The front will stall late Sat. Strong N winds will spread S across the waters N of 30N W of 135W overnight, and W of a line from 32N130w to 27NN40W on Sat before beginning to diminish. Elsewhere S of 25N and W of 110W, moderate NE to E trades will prevail N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through the weekend with seas remaining in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Nelson