000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 03 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W between 09N and 11N from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 11N75W to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N79W to 09N92W, then turns NW through an embedded 1011 mb low pressure at 14N112W, then turns SW to 10N116W, then W to 10N124W where it loses identity with a 1012 mb surface low analyzed at 17N129W. Scatterometer data indicates that an ITCZ develops at 12N128W and extends SW to beyond 10N140W. Scattered strong convection is observed within 210 nm over the NW semicircle of the low at 14N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm NE of the low at 17N129W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 04.5N77.5W to 09N90W to 09N102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of 06N106W, and within 60 nm either side of a line from 12N128W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high will meander near 30N120W through late Mon then shift N of the area. Gentle to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja Penisula through Sun with model guidance suggesting fresh NW winds will develop S of 25N within 60 nm of the coast on Sun evening with these fresh conditions spreading N along the entire Baja Peninsula on Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A tight pressure gradient will result in strong to near gale force through Tue morning with model guidance then suggesting that the next gale event, with seas building to 12 ft, will begin on Tue evening. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow expected across the gulf waters S of 26N tonight into early Sat, with these conditions developing again Sat evening and spreading N across the waters s of 29N on Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast across and 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, with moderate flow expected on Sat night. Model guidance is suggesting fresh drainage flow will begin again on Sun night. Light NW-N winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed at 33N131W, trailing a cold front SW along 32N. The low will move NE of the area with the cold front reaching a position from 32N125W to 30N130W to 22N140W on Sat morning. The front will stall late Sat. Strong N winds will spread S across the waters N of 30N W of 135W overnight, and W of a line from 32N130w to 27NN40W on Sat before beiginng to diminish. Elsewhere S of 25N and W of 110W, moderate NE to E trades will prevail N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through the weekend with seas remaining in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Nelson