000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09.5N96W to low pres near 13N111W 1011 MB to 09.5N117W to low pres near 15.5N131W 1012 MB. The ITCZ continues from 12N132W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 78W and 82.5W and front 07N to 15N between 103W and 116.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface high pressure centered near 29N119W will meander across the waters W of Baja California through Mon, supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly wind flow and seas of 4 to 5 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California. Late afternoon heating will allow for an increase of winds along the coast to last into the evening hours. Gentle and variable winds are expected inside the Gulf of California through the weekend, with typical local effects driving wind direction and strength. Northerly winds will freshen across the entrance to the Gulf on Sun as high pressure builds south into the trade wind zone. Moderate NW to N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are expected across the Mexican offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A tightening pressure gradient from the Gulf of Mexico SW into the region will result in strong northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region through next week, with nocturnal drainage flow enhancing winds to 30 kt through the morning hours of this weekend, and to minimal gale force starting next Tue night or Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds and 4 to 6 ft seas were observed across and up to 150 nm downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, with winds expected to diminish to 15-20 kt through Sun night. Model guidance is suggesting fresh drainage flow by Wed of next week. Light NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevailing S of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface lows along the monsoon trough are analyzed near 13N111W and near 15.5N131W. A surface trough is also analyzed over NW waters from 30N139W to 22N141W. ASCAT data overnight indicated winds associated with these two surface lows were 15 kt or less, but sufficient to initiate active convection described above surrounding the low near 13N111W. Strong high pressure will build NW of the area through Sat night and push a cold front to merge with the existing surface trough over the weekend. The new front will extend from 32N130W to 22N140W late tonight, then stall from 32N124W to 21N137W by Sat night. A reinforcing surge of cold air will push southward along 32N between 135W and 140W tonight, with strong force northerly flow developing in NW waters and seas building to 8-12 ft with NW swell. Winds are and seas are expected to diminish slightly across these NW waters on Sun. Models show a frontal wave or weak low developing along the frontal boundary early Sun near 29N129W, which then drifts NE through Mon. Elsewhere S of 25N and W of 110W, moderate NE to E trades will prevail N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through the weekend with seas remaining in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Stripling