000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 02 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W along 10N from the Caribbean coast of Colombia to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 10N97W, then turns NW to 13N109W where it loses identity in cyclonic circulation associated with a 1009 mb centered at 15N111W and accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection currently observed within 270 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles of the low. Scatterometer winds indicate that the monsoon trough resumes SW of the low at 11N113W and extends NW to a 1010 mb low pressure at 15N129W. The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 06N77W to 07N87W, within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N104W to 07N108W, and within 60 nm either side of lines from 09N111W to 10N120W, and from 15N120W to 08N139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface high is centered just W of the area at 26N121W with gentle to locally moderate northerly flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, across the waters W of the Baja Penisula. The surface high will shift NE to near 29N119W on Sun evening. Moderate NE to E winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas, are observed across the Mexican offshore waters from 13N to 20N in association within the surface low previously described at 15N111W, with little change expected through late Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow beginning tonight. At least strong N pulses are expected through Wed morning with model guidance suggesting that the next gale event, with seas to 12 ft, will beginning on Wed evening. Gulf of California: Moderate SW flow is forecast from 29.5N to 31N tonight. Moderate NW flow expected across the gulf waters S of 26N on Fri night into early Sat. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere through this upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE drainage winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast across, and within 150 nm downstream, of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, with moderate flow expected on Fri and Sat nights. Model guidance is suggesting fresh drainage flow on Sun and Mon nights. Light NW-N winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1014 mb surface low is analyzed at 30N140W, trailing a developing cold front S to 26N140W. The low will move NE of the area early Fri with the cold front reaching a position from 32N130W to 22N140W late Fri, and stall from 32N124W to 21N137W on Sat night. A secondary surge of re-enforcing strong cold air will propagate S to along 32N between 135W and 140W on Fri night, with strong to near gale force northerly flow, and 8 to 12 ft seas, W of line from 32N130W to 27N140W. The winds will diminish to a fresh N to NE breeze on Sun. A frontal wave low may develop along the stalling front near 29N129W late Sat night, and move slowly N on Sun and Mon to near 32N127W on Tue with strong N to NW winds within 150 nm over the NW quadrant of the low on Sun. $$ Nelson