000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N90W to 11N102W to 11N112W to 14N122W to 09N134W where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and resumes to beyond 09N140W. Scattered strong convection exists within 60 nm of the axis between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of axis from 06N to 09N between 80W and 86W, from 03N to 07N between 77W and 80W, within 120 nm S of axis between 111W and 115W, and also within 60 nm of the axis between 130W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 116W and 119W, and within 60 nm N of the axis between 134W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure and rather tranquil marine conditions will continue across the offshore waters W of Baja California through the weekend. Expect gentle to at times moderate NW winds along with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in Gulf of California. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico. These winds will increase further through Saturday allowing for these winds to increase to the strong range with seas building to 8 to 11 ft at that time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NE winds will pulse to the fresh range across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night tonight, and pulse to mainly the moderate range Friday night and Saturday night. Seas will build to around the 4 to range with these winds. Elsewhere, light westerly winds are expected to the N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. These conditions are forecast to change little through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Latest available ASCAT and altimeter data showed light to gentle winds across this area and seas of 4 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell. Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less across nearly all of the region through Saturday, and seas are expected to subside to less than 8 ft across the entire forecast waters on Thursday evening. A weak cold front is forecast to move into the NW portion of the area tonight, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with little impact in winds and seas. Significant changes to winds and seas will be seen over the NW part of the area beginning late Friday night into Saturday as a strong winter type high pressure system begins to build southeastward over those waters. This will nudge the front eastward across the NW forecast waters. Global model guidance during the past few days has been consistently suggesting that the pressure associated with this strong upcoming high pressure will tighten very quickly over the NW waters to bring NE winds over those same waters starting early on Saturday. An extensive set of NW swell will accompany these winds with seas building to the range of 8 to 12 ft over those waters by Saturday evening. In the tropics, a couple of generally weak low pressure systems or surface troughs will linger near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough convergence zones through Saturday. Although, tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days strong convection will be possible with the lows. Presently, the strong convection is associated with a 1009 mb low pressure near 15N110W. The convection is located within 180 nm W of the low from 14N to 19N. The low will move in a general WSW direction through Saturday. $$ Aguirre