000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N114W to low 
pressure near 14N126W 1008 mb to 09N137W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong within 90 nm of axis between 109W and 122W, and 
from 14N to 18N between 105W and 111W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure and moderate marine conditions will continue 
across the offshore waters W of Baja California through the 
weekend. Expect gentle to moderate NW winds and 4 to 5 ft seas, 
except 1 to 2 ft in Gulf of California. 

The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin Friday, 
with strong northerly winds reaching a diurnal peak in the early 
morning through at least the weekend. Model guidance indicates 
strongest winds are likely early Sunday, with seas building to 
around 10-12 ft each day during maximum winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of
Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building 
to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon 
trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon 
trough, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft, are expected to persist 
through Saturday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

ASCAT passes and altimeter data show light to gentle winds 
across this area and seas of 4 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell. 
Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less across nearly all of the 
region through Friday, and seas are expected to subside to less 
than 8 ft across the entire forecast waters late on Thursday.

A weak cold front will reach the NW part of the forecast area 
tonight, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with 
little impact in winds and seas. Strong high pressure will build 
southeastward over NW waters Friday night and Saturday, pushing 
the front eastward across the NW forecast waters. Latest model 
guidance shows fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the front, 
and large seas building to 8 to 12 ft in long period NW swell.

In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems or surface 
troughs will linger along the convergence zone through Saturday.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days.

$$ 
Mundell