000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N98W to 11N110W to 10N107W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N121W to 10N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within about 120 nm S of the trough axis between 110W and 120W. Similar convection is from 11N to 14N between 120W and 123W. Another 1008 mb low pressure is near 14N125W. Convection is limited. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California through at least Saturday. Under the influence of this system, expect gentle to moderate NW winds, and seas generally of 4 to 5 ft. The next gap wind event through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Friday morning. Strong to near gale force winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, Friday night through Monday night. Model guidance indicates northerly winds of 25 to 30 kt and seas building to 10 or 11 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft, are expected to persist through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the north forecast waters, particularly N of 19N W of 110W. Latest ASCAT passes and altimeter data showed light to gentle winds across this area and seas of 4 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell. This seas are what is left of the major swell event of the past several days. Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less across nearly all of the region through Friday, and seas are expected to subside to less than 8 ft across the entire forecast waters late on Thursday. A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW part of the forecast area tonight, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with little impact in winds and seas. Strong high pressure will build southeastward over NW waters Friday night and Saturday, pushing the front eastward across the NW forecast waters. The front is forecast to reach a position from 30N135W to 23N140W by early Friday morning, and from 30N130W to 26N135W to 22N140W by early Saturdy morning. Latest model guidance shows fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the front, and large seas building to 8 to 12 ft in long period NW swell. In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems or surface troughs will linger along the convergence zone through Saturday. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days. A surface trough extends from 20N107W to 17N110W to 11N111W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is within about 90 nm E of trough from 13N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the trough from 16N to 20N between 105W and 110W. $$ GR