000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N98W to 11N110W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N121W to 09N130W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
NE of a line from 09N115W to 12N121W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 10N to 11.5N between 90W and 92W, and from 06N to 09N 
between 100W and 103W. Another 1010 mb low pressure is near 14N126W.
Scattered moderate to isolated stromg convections is from 13N TO
15N between 123W and 126W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Benign marine conditions are settling in across the waters west 
of Mexico. Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the NW, 
and seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in Gulf of California. 
Conditions will continue to improve through Friday morning. The 
next gap wind event through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is 
forecast to begin Friday, with strong northerly winds expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then continue with a diurnal peak in 
the early morning through the weekend, or possibly longer. Model 
guidance indicates strongest winds are likely early Sunday, with 
seas building to around 10-12 ft each day during maximum winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of
Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building 
to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon 
trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon 
trough, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft, are expected to persist 
through Saturday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the north forecast waters, particularly N of 
19N W of 110W. Latest ASCAT passes and altimeter data showed 
light to gentle winds across this area and seas of 4 to 7 ft in
NW swell. This seas are what is left of the major swell event of
the past several days. Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less 
across nearly all of the region through Friday, and seasa will 
subside to less than 8 ft across the entire forecast waters late 
on Thursday.

A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW part of the 
forecast area tonight, then move slowly southeastward through 
Friday with little impact in winds and seas. Strong high pressure
will build southeastward over NW waters Friday night and 
Saturday, pushing the front eastward. Latest model guidance 
shows fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the front, and large 
seas building to 9 to 14 ft in long period NW swell.

In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems or surface 
troughs will linger along the convergence zone through Saturday.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days. 
  
$$
GR