000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 09N92W to 09N100W to low pressure near 11N106W 1009 mb to 11N115W to 11N123W to 08.5N128W to 09N134W. The ITCZ continues from 09N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection exists from 11N-14N between 115W and 123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 134W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the axis between 105W and 109W, and also within 60 nm S of the axis between 97W and 103W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Benign marine conditions are settling in across the waters west of Mexico. Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the NW, and seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in Gulf of California. Conditions will continue to improve through Friday morning. The next gap wind event through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Friday, with strong northerly winds expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then continue with a diurnal peak in the early morning through the weekend, or possibly longer. Model guidance indicates strongest winds are likely early Sunday, with seas building to around 10-12 ft each day during maximum winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough will continue several days through at least the weekend, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Benign marine conditions are also settling in across the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Latest Ascat passes and altimeter data showed winds of generally 15 kt or less, and seas are in the range of 4 to 7 ft, except to the S of a line from the equator near 126W to 08N118W to 09N96W to 05N95W where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. This seas are what is left of the major swell event of the past several days, and will subside to less than 8 ft on Thursday. Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less across nearly all of the region through Friday, with seas gradually subsiding by another ft or two as the NW swell decays. A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW part of the forecast area tonight, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with little impact in winds and seas. Strong high pressure will build southeastward over NW waters Friday night and Saturday, pushing the front eastward. Latest model guidance shows fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the front, and large seas building to 9 to 14 ft in long period NW swell. In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems or surface troughs will linger along the convergence zone through Saturday. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days. $$ Aguirre