000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010935
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 1008 mb low pressure 
near 11N106W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N123W to 09N125W to 
09N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to beyond 10N140W. 
Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection are 
found from 07N to 09N between 97W and 99W, from 08N to 15N 
between 104W and 109W, from 10N to 15N between 118W and 124W, 
and within 75 nm south of the convergence zone axis W of 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Benign marine conditions are settling in across the waters west 
of Mexico. Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the NW, 
and seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in Gulf of California. 
Conditions will continue to improve through Friday morning. The 
next gap wind event through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is 
expected to begin Friday, with strong northerly winds expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then continue with a diurnal peak in 
the early morning through the weekend, or possibly longer. Model 
guidance indicates strongest winds are likely early Sunday, with 
seas building to around 10-12 ft each day during maximum winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of
Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building 
to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon 
trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon 
trough will continue several days through at least the weekend, 
with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Benign marine conditions are also settling in across the open 
waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scatterometer and altimeter 
data show winds generally 15 kt or less, and seas are 4 to 7 ft 
except south of a line from 00N120W to 10N110W to 07N95W, where 
seas are 8 ft, the remnant of a major NW swell event during the 
past week. Expect winds to remain 15 kt or less across nearly 
all of the region through Friday, with seas gradually subsiding 
by another ft or two as the NW swell decays.  

A weak cold front will reach the NW part of the forecast area 
tonight, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with 
little impact in winds and seas. Strong high pressure will build 
southeastward over NW waters Friday night and Saturday, pushing 
the front eastward. Model guidance shows fresh to strong N to NW 
winds behind the front, and large seas building to 12-14 ft in 
long period NW swell.

In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems or surface 
troughs will linger along the convergence zone through Saturday.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days. 
  
$$
Mundell